How to Prepare Your Home for El Niño This Winter
Published on September 22, 2026 by Leegie Parker
Leegie Parker | Real Estate Advisor | DRE 01020534 | Compass | Leegie.com
Quick Answer To prepare your home for El Niño this winter, start before the first major storm arrives. Clean your gutters and drains, have questionable or overhanging trees assessed, and address any known roof issues now rather than waiting for rain to reveal a problem. It is also a good time to call your insurance agent and ask specifically what your policy does, and does not, cover for flood, mudflow, landslide or earth movement, sewer or drain backup, fallen trees, and rain entering through a damaged roof. These situations can be treated very differently under an insurance policy. El Niño is already strengthening in the Pacific, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026-27. NOAA also says there is a 75% chance that the October-December period reaches a historically strong level exceeding previous El Niño events in its record dating back to 1950. That does not mean Los Angeles is guaranteed a historically wet winter. But with Southern California's winter outlook favoring wetter-than-normal conditions, it makes sense to prepare your home now rather than after the first big storm hits. |
I know how real storm-related damage can become because I watched it happen to a dear client and friend.
During a bad rain a couple of years ago, the ground around her home became so saturated that two trees came down on her house within 24 hours of each other. The first came through her kitchen ceiling. The home was red-tagged, and a second tree fell overnight, opening more of the roof to the rain pouring in.
What started as storm damage turned into essentially rebuilding her home.
More recently, I had a large limb from a neighbor's tree come down on my own roof and punch a hole through it. In my case, the limb had been weakened by termites rather than rain.
It was a good reminder that trees don't need a storm to become a hazard, and that existing weaknesses can become much more important when wet soil, wind, and winter storms arrive.
In This Guide
How Strong Is This Winter's El Niño Forecast, Really?
You may have heard the developing pattern described as a "super El Niño." That is an informal term commonly used for an exceptionally strong event. NOAA's official terminology is "very strong El Niño."
And this year's forecast is significant.
In its September 10, 2026 update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported that El Niño is already strengthening and gave it a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during fall and winter 2026-27.
NOAA went even further: it currently estimates a 75% chance that the October-December 2026 period reaches a historically strong level exceeding previous El Niño events in its record dating back to 1950, based on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index used in its current forecast.
That's noteworthy, but it is important to understand what it does and doesn't tell us about Los Angeles rainfall.
A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of weather patterns commonly associated with El Niño, including wetter conditions across portions of Southern California. It does not tell us how much rain will fall in Tarzana, Encino, Sherman Oaks, Woodland Hills, Malibu, Santa Monica, or any other individual neighborhood.
We've seen that difference before.
The powerful 1997-98 El Niño brought exceptional rainfall to Southern California, with more than 30 inches recorded during the season at Los Angeles-area observing locations.
By contrast, the very strong 2015-16 El Niño did not produce the soaking Southern California winter many forecasts had anticipated. Much of the heaviest and most persistent precipitation ended up farther north.
The lesson is simple: El Niño shifts the odds. It doesn't dictate individual storms.
We cannot say today exactly how much rain Los Angeles will receive this winter. What we can say is that NOAA is forecasting an unusually strong El Niño, and current seasonal outlooks favor wetter-than-normal conditions across California later in the season.
For homeowners, that's reason enough to prepare.
That urgency isn't just coming from me. On September 21, 2026, Governor Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency specifically to bolster statewide El Niño preparedness, before a single major storm has even arrived. The proclamation directs state agencies to stage flood-fighting supplies like sandbags and pumps, prepare Caltrans equipment along the highways most at risk, and fast-track flood, landslide, and debris flow protection work with local partners. "We are not waiting for this season's storms to be on our doorstep," said Cal OES Director Caroline Thomas Jacobs.
A study published last month in the journal Science found that El Niño events are now more than 36% stronger than before the industrial era, a trend that has accelerated over the last 40 years as the planet warms. When the state itself is mobilizing resources months ahead of the rain, it's worth taking the same approach with your own home.
What Should You Ask Your Insurance Agent About Right Now?
This is one conversation I would have sooner rather than later.
Ask your insurance agent or broker specifically what your current policy does, and does not, cover for:
● Flooding
● Mudflow
● Mudslides, landslides and other earth movement
● Sewer or drain backup
● Fallen trees
● Wind and storm damage
● Rain entering through a damaged roof
The terminology matters.
A standard homeowners insurance policy generally does not cover flooding. Flood insurance is typically purchased separately.
There is also an important distinction between mudflow and landslide.
Under federal flood insurance definitions, certain mudflows, essentially a river of liquid and flowing mud over normally dry land, may fall within flood coverage. A landslide, slope failure or saturated soil moving down a slope is considered earth movement and is treated differently.
That's particularly important for homeowners on hillsides, below slopes, or near canyon areas.
There can also be special circumstances involving properties affected by wildfires, because California's "efficient proximate cause" rules may affect coverage when a covered peril such as fire contributes to a later mudslide, debris flow or similar loss.
Because every policy and every loss can be different, this isn't an area where I would rely on assumptions. Ask your own insurance professional how your specific coverage works.
Don't Wait Until a Storm Is on the Radar to Ask About Flood Insurance
If you're considering flood insurance, timing matters.
Policies issued through the National Flood Insurance Program generally have a 30-day waiting period after purchase before coverage begins, although there are limited exceptions (FEMA's FloodSmart program has more detail).
Private flood insurance policies may have different requirements.
In other words, once a major storm is already approaching Los Angeles, it may be too late to put coverage in place for that event.
If flooding is a concern for your property, now is the time to discuss it with your insurance professional.
What About Rain Coming Through the Roof?
This is another area where homeowners sometimes assume the answer is simply "covered" or "not covered."
It can be more complicated than that.
California homeowners policies generally cover certain sudden losses caused by windstorms, falling objects and other covered perils, while damage related to wear and tear, neglected maintenance, long-term seepage or deterioration may be excluded.
So if wind damages a roof and rain enters through the opening, the situation may be treated differently from a roof that has been leaking because it was already deteriorated.
That is another reason to have your roof checked before the winter rains arrive.
Why I Wouldn't Wait to Deal With Your Roof
I recently had a hole in my own roof repaired after the neighbor's tree limb came down, and all the roofers I contacted are busy right now with repairs and new roof installations. Roofers are in demand right now.
That's enough for me not to want to be looking for a roofer once the rain starts.
If your roof is older, you've noticed staining or previous leaks, or you already know there are areas that need attention, take care of those issues now.
A roof that has seemed fine through dry weather can become a very different story during several days of steady rain.
And once water gets inside a house, the damage can compound quickly, something I have seen first hand many times.
What Should You Actually Do to Prepare Your Home for El Niño?
Preparing your home for a potentially wet winter really comes down to two things:
Control where the water goes and deal with potential problems before a storm finds them for you.
1. Clean Your Gutters and Downspouts
Remove leaves, dirt and debris so water can move freely away from the roof.
Check that downspouts aren't dumping large amounts of water directly against your foundation.
2. Check Your Property's Drainage
Clear yard drains, area drains and drainage channels.
Leaves and landscaping debris can quickly block a drain once heavy rain begins, so make sure everything is flowing before the first storm.
If you already know water pools somewhere on your property during rain, don't ignore it.
3. Look Up at Your Trees
Dead branches, weak limbs, visible decay, trees leaning toward the home and trees already stressed by drought, disease or pests deserve attention.
Saturated soil can reduce the stability around a tree's root system, particularly when combined with wind, shallow roots, structural defects or existing decay.
A tree can look perfectly normal from the patio and still have a problem you can't see.
If you have concerns, have the tree evaluated by a qualified arborist rather than trying to diagnose it yourself.
4. Look at Your Roof Before You Need It
Check for known leaks, damaged or missing roofing material, deteriorated flashing and other obvious trouble spots.
If you aren't comfortable checking it yourself, have a qualified roofer take a look.
You would much rather discover a problem on a dry October afternoon than during three days of rain.
5. Pay Extra Attention to Hillside and Canyon Properties
If your home is on or below a slope, drainage takes on even more importance.
Make sure drainage systems, swales and other water-control features are clear and functioning properly.
If you have concerns about slope stability, erosion or previous movement, speak with the appropriate qualified professional before the rainy season.
It's also worth knowing that insurance rates have already been climbing for hillside homes for reasons separate from El Niño, so this is a good moment to review your overall coverage picture, not just flood and mudslide protection, while you're already talking to your agent.
6. Know Where Water Is Likely to Go
Walk your property and think about what happens during a heavy downpour.
Where does roof water discharge? Where does runoff from the backyard go? Can water flow toward a garage, lower-level doorway or crawlspace? Are exterior drains covered by leaves or landscaping?
Some of the most effective preparation is simply identifying a problem before thousands of gallons of rainwater point it out for you, and having items on hand, such as sandbags and/or a sump pump, to help you deal with issues.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the state declared an emergency for this El Niño season?
Yes. On September 21, 2026, Governor Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency to bolster statewide El Niño preparedness, ahead of any actual storms. The proclamation stages flood-fighting supplies, prepares Caltrans equipment along at-risk highways, readies the California National Guard for flood response and search-and-rescue support, and fast-tracks flood and landslide protection permitting with local agencies.
How strong is the 2026-27 El Niño expected to be?
El Niño is already present and strengthening. NOAA's September 2026 forecast gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026-27.
NOAA also estimates a 75% chance that the October-December period reaches a historically strong level exceeding previous El Niño events in its record dating back to 1950.
That increases the likelihood of weather patterns commonly associated with El Niño, but it does not guarantee a particular amount of rain in Los Angeles.
Does a strong El Niño mean Los Angeles will definitely have a very wet winter?
No.
El Niño changes the probability of certain weather patterns, it doesn't determine individual storms or exact rainfall totals.
Southern California has experienced very different outcomes during previous strong El Niño winters. The extremely wet 1997-98 season and the much less impressive Southern California rainfall during 2015-16 are good examples of why an exceptionally strong El Niño does not automatically equal an exceptionally wet Los Angeles winter.
Does my homeowners insurance cover flood or mudslide damage?
Standard homeowners policies generally exclude flooding and many forms of earth movement.
Certain mudflows may fall within the definition of a flood under federal flood insurance, while landslides, slope failures and saturated soil moving down a slope are treated differently.
Coverage can also depend on the specific cause of a loss and the language of your policy.
Ask your insurance agent or broker specifically about flood, mudflow, landslide or earth movement, sewer or drain backup, fallen trees and storm-related water damage.
How long does flood insurance take to become effective?
National Flood Insurance Program policies generally have a 30-day waiting period after purchase before coverage begins, although there are specific exceptions.
Private flood insurance policies may have different waiting periods and requirements.
Does homeowners insurance cover rain coming through my roof?
It depends on what caused the damage.
A homeowners policy may cover storm-related water damage when a covered peril such as wind or a falling object causes damage that allows rain into the home.
Damage caused by deterioration, wear and tear, neglected maintenance or long-term seepage may not be covered.
Your insurance agent can explain how your specific policy treats these situations.
How far in advance should I get my roof inspected before winter?
As early as possible.
If you know your roof has a problem or suspect that it does, there is little benefit to waiting for the first major storm to confirm it.
Getting the work evaluated now also gives you more time to compare recommendations and schedule repairs before winter weather arrives.
What's the biggest home risk during a wet winter?
There isn't one single risk for every property.
For some homes it may be roof leakage. For others it's poor drainage, flooding, a hillside issue or a compromised tree.
The goal is to identify your property's weak points now, while you still have time to address them.
Key Takeaways ● El Niño is already strengthening, and NOAA gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter 2026-27. ● On September 21, 2026, Governor Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency to bolster statewide El Niño preparedness, staging resources and fast-tracking flood and landslide protection work before storms arrive. ● NOAA currently estimates a 75% chance of a historically strong October-December event, but even an exceptionally strong El Niño does not guarantee exceptionally heavy rain in Los Angeles. ● Call your insurance agent or broker now and ask specifically about flood, mudflow, landslide or earth movement, sewer or drain backup, fallen trees and storm-related water intrusion. ● NFIP flood insurance generally has a 30-day waiting period, with limited exceptions, so don't wait until a storm is approaching to investigate coverage. ● Clean gutters, downspouts and exterior drains before the rainy season. ● Have questionable trees assessed, particularly if there is visible decay, structural damage, pest activity or a tree leaning toward a structure. ● Address known roof problems now rather than discovering them during the first major rain. ● Hillside and canyon-adjacent homeowners should pay particular attention to drainage, erosion and slope conditions. |
Getting Your Home Ready This Season
None of us can know in September exactly what this winter will look like in our particular neighborhood.
But preparation doesn't require knowing the rainfall total in advance.
A cleared drain, a repaired roof, a questionable tree evaluated before the wind arrives, and a clear understanding of what your insurance does and does not cover can make an enormous difference when a storm finally does come through.
If you want a referral to a roofer, arborist or contractor I trust, or you just want to talk through what to prioritize before winter, reach out anytime. I'm happy to help however I can, no pressure.
Leegie Parker
Real Estate Advisor, Compass
DRE 01020534
310-739-9202 | Leegie@Leegie.com | Leegie.com
Sources
Governor of California — September 21, 2026 State of Emergency Proclamation for El Niño Preparedness
NOAA Climate Prediction Center — September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
NOAA Climate Prediction Center — Seasonal Precipitation Outlooks
FEMA FloodSmart / National Flood Insurance Program — Flood Insurance Waiting Periods
California Department of Insurance — Flood Insurance Resources and Homeowners Insurance Coverage
National Weather Service — Historical El Niño and California Precipitation Information
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